Saddam Husain in Iraq, Col Qaddafi in Libya and Hafiz al Assad in Syria came to power overthrowing ruthlessly oppressive regimes. Initially, they were perceived by people as harbingers of a new more tolerant Govts which will change their lives for the better. Regrettably, the new rulers increasingly used the intolerant, oppressive and authoritarian ways of their predecessors. To remain in power, they resorted to constant surveillance of their people and scared them of severe punishment for slightest signs of dissent; their loyal, henchmen brutally sniffed out all perceived threat to the regime. Disregard of the civil liberties wasn’t the only flaw of these regimes; they were corrupt, inefficient and guilty of economic mismanagement. Slowly, these regimes lost pulse of the people who were seething with anger, bitterness and hatred and waiting for their fall.
Bashar Assaad’s surprisingly swift collapse of power followed this trajectory. When in 1994, following the death of his elder brother Bassel in a car accident, Bashar was recalled by his father from London to groom as his heir, none could have imagined that he would soon outshine his father in centralisation of authority and conducting a ruthless, authoritarian and corrupt govt unconcerned about people’s problems.
He joined the Military academy and obtained the rank of a Colonel.In1998 he was made in charge of the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Following the assassination of the Lebanese PM Rafiq Hariri, Lebanon witnessed Cedar revolution characterised by anti-Syria protests which forced Assad to end the Lebanese occupation in 2005.
Earlier, he had put down the Damascus Spring (2001-2002) when activists demanded certain degree of transparency in governance and democracy with a heavy hand.
Though Assad belonged to Alawite clan which was a small minority in a predominantly a Sunny state, Assad filled all key post in the party, Govt and in the armed forces with family loyalist from his community which fanned sectarian divide.
His initial attempts at economic liberalisation had increased the hardships of the common people. In a short span of time, his personalised totalitarian police state brooking no opposition and resorting to extreme repression manged to alienate the rural population as well urban middle class, business community and many in his own Baath party.
In 2011-12, faced with widespread protests in Syria inspired by the Arab Spring, he ordered military clamp down. While Hilari Clinton, US Secretary of State pronounced that Bashar had lost all legitimacy, President Obama asked him to step down and facilitate the transition to a new elected Govt. But he survived; both Russia & China vetoed several UN resolutions which proposed imposition of severe sanctions on Syria. Iran and Egypt stood by him. Russia carried out extensive air strike against the ISIL (Islamic state for Iraq and Levant) but also against the Rebel fighters who were waging war against Bashar. At its peak, Russian military personnels were allegedly manning Syrian air defence system & armoured vehicles. They were also offering surveillance equipment & electronic warfare, helicopters, guided bombs radar etc. By 2015, thanks to Russian bombing, shacky position of Bashar Assad had been stabilised. By 2023, besides their Air Base in Lattakia and Naval Base in Tartus, Russia reportedly had 20 military bases and 85 other military points in Syria.
Iran allegedly extended financial assistance to the tune of US$ 9 billion; it’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards became the logistic hub to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. Some Western media reports allege, 10,000 Iranian fighters were in Syria to bolster Bashar’s regime. By 2023 Iran allegedly had 55 military bases and 512 other military points in Syria.
Iraq also supplied financial help & diesel. It allowed trucks with food items and possibly weapons pass through to Syria & let Iran use its air space to attack ISIL. Egypt also joined Syria & Iraq in its fight against ISIL which had occupied sizeable chunk of Syrian territory and was running its own regressive Govt treating the Yazidi women as virtual sex slaves,
While Russia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Hezbollah in Lebanon & Hamas in Gaza were on Bashar’s side in against Syrian rebels, Saudi Arabia, UAE & Qatar, USA, UK, France, Israel and some other European countries sought Bashar’s ouster. The US which intervened in Syria in 2014 ostensibly to fight ISIL supported the Syrian Free Army and Kurdish led Syrian Democratic Forces. The militant groups supported by the US & European allies reportedly killed thousands of Bashar supporters; Bashar is accused of having killed around 500,000 Syrians in 15 year long civil war which made 4.5 million Syrians as refugees; over 3 million of them have fled to Turkey & a few thousand to European countries. According to UNHCR, the majority of Syrians have slidde into poverty and roughly 16.5 million of them need humanitarian assistance.
Ordinary Syrians’ spontaneous celebration of Bashar’s ouster reflected how unpopular he had become. Syrian army didn’t put up a fight in the lost battle. Russia bogged down in Ukraine perhaps took the eye off the ball. Hezbollah’s decimation in Lebanon and fear of Israeli attacks, prevented Iran from rushing to Bashar’s help. Hayat Tahrir al Sham leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani took advantage of the prevailing political vacuum, his march to, Damascus was almost unchallenged. Jolani who fought with Al Qaeda in Iraq against American invasion refused to do Baghdadi’s bidding in Syria and expanded his group’s capability with Turkish support has, so far, made right noises. Prior to taking over Damascus, in his interview with the CNN, he distanced himself from his past and claimed to have evolved as a nationalist Syrian who stood for national unity, offering equal treatment of all minorities and promising democratic elections and peace and prosperity for the people. One hopes, decades long proxy war in Syria is over for good.
The US has lifted its bounty of US$ 10 million on his head; the US and its allies could normalise relations with Syria if Jolani who, now, prefers to be called Ahmed al Sharaa holds election and lets a democratically elected inclusive govt take over. Sharaa has been quick to change his attire; from the outfit of a militant to army fatigue to tailored business suits; he has slipped in to the new role with ease and looks and acts confident.
Media allegations that Bashar’s ouster was hatched by the US, Saudi Arabia & Israel don’t sound so incredible now. When Bashar regime’s end looked imminent, Russia was left with no option but to go along. Erdogan who actively supported HTS is happy with Bashar’s exit; he had rocky relations with him.
With no foot in Syria anymore and, in Lebanon, Hezbollah in no position to resurrect soon, Iran appers the biggest loser. The US is happy that the Russian and Iranian hold on Syria is shattered and hopes, the new Govt might be less inimical to USA. The ascendence of Turkey’s influence in Syria and in the region is unmistakable.
Palestinians are worst off. After loss of nearly 46000 lives in Gaza which has been reduced to rubbles and Hamas & Hezbollah on the last leg, their long-held dream of two-states has become distant than ever.
Israel is grabbing territory in Syria, seems in no mood to evacuate from Gaza and is expanding its settlements on the West bank. With strongly pro-Israel Trump moving in the White House, Israel will be in no mood for making any concessions.
2025 seems much bleaker for the Palestinians whose cause has been almost abandoned by the Arab leaders.